| # | Name | System | Parameters-Settings | % Correct | C-index | Runtime | Details Link | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Best | All predictions correct | 100 | 1.0 | 0 | |||
| 2 | Worst | All predictions wrong | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 3 | All IN | All predictions IN | 50 | 0.5 | 0 | |||
| 4 | All OUT | All predictions OUT | 50 | 0.5 | 0 | |||
| 5 | Chance | Random IN/OUT | 50 | 0.5 | 0 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: true IN | FP: false IN | TP + FP |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: false OUT | TN: true OUT | TN + FN |
| 3 | total | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| # | CIS 1 - Best | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4,997 | 0 | 4,997 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 0 | 5,003 | 5,003 |
| 3 | total | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| # | CIS 2 - Worst | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted UP | 0 | 5,003 | 5,003 |
| 2 | # predicted DOWN | 4,997 | 0 | 4,997 |
| 3 | total | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| # | CIS 3 - All IN | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | total | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| # | CIS 4 - All OUT | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| 3 | total | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| # | CIS 5 - Chance | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | ~2,498 | ~2,502 | ~5,000 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | ~2,499 | ~2,501 | ~5,000 |
| 3 | total | 4,997 | 5,003 | 10,000 |
| 6 | Jeff | SVM | libSVM package, poly kernel (3rd), qp | 97.06 | .942 | .963 seconds (train) .659 seconds (test) | Details | |
| 7 | Peifeng | Fuzzy ARTMAP | learning rate = 1 baseline vigilance = 0.72 | 92.55 | 0.855 | .0954sec (train) 2.1445sec (test) | Details | |
| 8 | Peifeng | SVM Using Platt's SMO | C = positive infinity, Kernel = Gaussian RBF, Matlab with c++ mex | 97.29 | 0.946 | .1371sec (train) .018sec (test) | Details | |
| 9 | Jeff | MADALINE | MRII algorithm (LMS-a), learning rate = .3 | 54.5 | .291 | 1.2 seconds (training) .549 seconds (test) | Details | |
| 10 | Neel | Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP (Kasuba, 1993) | learning rate = 1 baseline vigilance = 0.75 | 86.76 | 0.8794 | 0.5 seconds (training) 2.5 seconds (test) | Details | |
| 11 | Rohit | KNN | K=2 | 95.55 | 0.9654 | 0.7699 sec (training + testing) | Details | |
| 12 | Sean | KNN | K=1 | 95.55 | 0.9654 | 6.65 sec | Details | |
| 13 | Charles | Cascade Correlation | In-house Code, Fixed Iterations/Cascades (10 Cascades, 100 epochs each), eta = 0.5 (arbitrary), error Threshold = 0.5 | 66.90 | 0.6604 | 111.144 sec | Details | |
| 14 | Melissa | Backprop w/Momentum | learning rate = 0.25, momentum = 0.8 | 97.45 | 0.9493 | 39.95 seconds | Details | |
| 15 | Todd | SVM | libSVM using Polynomial kernel (3rd) | 97.38 | .9827 | 0.006s (Trn) 0.027s (Test) | Details | |
| 16 | Karthik | Madaline | inhouse code MRII Learning Law,LMS, l = 0.4 | 52 | 0.256 | 3.0 s(training) 1.2 s (test) | Chance level, just breaks even Results | |
| 17 | Cloud | Backprop w/Momentum | Neurons in the hidden layer: 20, learning rate = 0.15, momentum = 0.8 (one possible selection) | 91 | 9.047s (train) | I report the results in a slightly different way because of the random initilization process of BP network. Please see the Details | ||
| 18 | Rohit | fuzzy ARTMAP | learning rate = 1 baseline vigilance = 0.9 | 87.97 | 0.9117 | 0.3245(train) + 16.6011(test) | Details | |
| 19 | Charles | Maximum Likelihood | In-house Code, Severely Hacked (see notes) | 80.26 | 0.7844 | 2.150113 sec | Details | |
| 20 | Cloud | Fuzzy KNN | k=1, L2 | 95 | 1.4s (train+cross validation+test) | Details | ||
| 21 | Melissa | PNN | sigma = 0.62 | 68.24 | 0.3762 | 1.73 seconds | Details | |
| 22 | Neel | Genetic Simplified Fuzzy ARTMAP | population size = 80, generations = 2000 | 90.34 | 0.898 | 19.5 minutes (training) 1.2 seconds (test) | Details | |
| 23 | Roger | Fuzzy ARTMAP | vigilance =.001 | 89.12 | 22.23 sec (train,test, visualize) | |||
| 23 | Roger | PNN | spread =.005 | 95.22 | 23.24 sec (train,test, visualize) | |||
| 24 | Joe | Backprop | eta =.5, 2000 epochs | 96 | 90.67 sec (train,test, visualize) | |||
| 25 | Joe | Maximum Likelihood | 90 | sec (train,test, visualize) | ||||
| 26 | Karthik | SVM | svmlite,polynomial kernels | 94 | .91 | 2.5 seconds (train) 0.8 seconds (test) | works fine for kernels of order 3 or more Results | |
| 27 | Ben | kNN | k=1 | 95.55 | ~0.1 seconds | Details | ||
| 28 | Todd | EBF | Centers = 1 | 96.34 | 0.9782 | 0.036s (trn) 0.666s (test) | Details | |
| 29 | Sean | Fuzzy ARTMAP | beta=1, rho=0.9 | 87.97 | 0.91 | 0.129 sec (train); 11.334 sec (test) | Details | |
| 30 | Sean | Radial Basis Function | RBF Nodes=25; sigma=0.7 | 92.66 | 23.99 sec | Details |
| # | CIS 6 - Jeff | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4828 | 125 | 4953 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 169 | 4878 | 5047 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS 9 - Jeff | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 2322 | 1875 | 5092 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 2675 | 3128 | 4908 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS 7 - Peifeng | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4434 | 182 | 4616 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 563 | 4821 | 5384 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS 8 - Peifeng | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4944 | 59 | 5003 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 212 | 4785 | 4997 |
| 3 | total | 5156 | 4844 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4310 | 551 | 4861 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 685 | 4366 | 5051 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (-) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4834 | 169 | 5003 |
| 2 | # predicted - | 276 | 4721 | 4997 |
| 3 | total | 5110 | 4890 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4721 | 276 | 4997 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 169 | 4834 | 5003 |
| 3 | total | 4890 | 5110 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4666 | 1643 | 6309 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 331 | 3360 | 3691 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 4774 | FP: 32 | 4806 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 223 | TN: 4971 | 5194 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | __total__ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4792 | 57 | 4849 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 205 | 4946 | 5151 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 4847 | FP: 750 | 5597 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 150 | TN: 4253 | 4403 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4638 | 365 | 5003 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 838 | 4159 | 4997 |
| 3 | total | 5476 | 4524 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4430 | 1645 | 6075 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 567 | 3358 | 3925 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4747 | 245 | 4992 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 250 | 4758 | 5008 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 1887 | FP: 66 | 1953 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 3110 | TN: 4937 | 8047 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 4449 | FP: 418 | 4867 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 548 | TN: 4585 | 5133 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 4077 | FP: 168 | 4245 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 920 | TN: 4835 | 5755 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 4697 | FP: 178 | 4875 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 300 | TN: 4825 | 5125 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 4726 | FP: 159 | 4885 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 271 | TN: 4844 | 5115 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | TP: 5003 | FP: 1009 | 6012 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | FN: 0 | TN: 3988 | 3988 |
| 3 | total | 5003 | 4997 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 2282 | 1915 | 5197 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 2695 | 3108 | 4803 |
| 3 | total | 4977 | 5023 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4731 | 312 | 5043 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 266 | 4691 | 4957 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | ____total____ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4721 | 169 | 4890 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 276 | 4834 | 5110 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | confusion matrix | # actual positive (+) | # actual negative (–) | __total__ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted + | 4867 | 236 | 5103 |
| 2 | # predicted – | 130 | 4767 | 4897 |
| 3 | total | 4997 | 5003 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4638 | 365 | 5003 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 838 | 4159 | 4997 |
| 3 | total | 5476 | 4524 | 10000 |
| # | CIS confusion matrix | # actual IN | # actual OUT | total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | # predicted IN | 4809 | 188 | 4997 |
| 2 | # predicted OUT | 546 | 4457 | 5003 |
| 3 | total | 5355 | 4645 | 10000 |
| # | SVM | Name | % Correct | C-index | More details | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaussian kSVM | Jing Bai | 96.08 | Methods and Results | ||
| 2 | SVM (Platt) | Andy | 97.44 | details | ||
| 3 | SVM (Osuna) | Eugene | Work in progress | |||
| 4 | SVM | Paramesh | 93.84 | Results |
| # | ARTMAP | Name | % Correct | C-index | More details | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fuzzy ARTMAP | Tim | 92.8 | 0.86 | Vote Vis Vigilance | |
| 2 | Fuzzy ARTMAP | Gary | 94.19 | 0.89 | result parameters | |
| 3 | Fuzzy ARTMAP | Yohan | 93.79 | 0.88 | details | |
| 4 | Distr ARTMAP | Rob | 94.5 | N/A | ||
| 5 | GA+Distr ARTMAP | Jesse | 95.3 | Nodes:89, Dstrdness:1.36% (1.21 nodes), a:0.007 | b:1.01 | ratio:1.21 | v: 0.0082 | e:0 | g:0.65 | ||
| 6 | Default ARTMAP | Hee | 92.83 | 0.86 | Details_DefA_CIS | |
| 7 | Default ARTMAP | Paramesh | 92.04 | 0.8459 | Results | |
| 8 | ARTMAP-IC | Jeff | 93.97 |
| # | KNN | Name | % Correct | C-index | More details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KNN | Andy | 95.22 | 0.90 | details |
| 2 | KNN | Hee | 95.22 | 0.90 | Details_KNN |
| # | Bayesian Est. | Name | % Correct | C-index | More details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayesian Est. | Jing Xia | 89.91 | 0.80 | result |
| 2 | Bayesian Est. | Tim | 89.9 | 0.80 | result |
| # | RBF | Name | % Correct | C-index | More details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RBF Network | Jing Bai | 95.5 | 0.91 | Methods and Results |
| 2 | RBF | Jing Xia | 97.43 | 0.95 | method result |